Three-Scenario Planner
Model base, bull, and bear cases side-by-side. Every financial model shown to investors should have three scenarios. See how different assumptions change your trajectory.
Founders often build one financial forecast and hope it works out. But sophisticated investors don't believe in single-scenario thinking. They want to see how your business performs under different growth assumptions—if everything goes right, if growth slows, if you encounter headwinds.
Three-scenario planning forces you to think about multiple futures: a base case that reflects realistic execution, a bull case where you capture more market and grow faster, and a bear case where adoption is slower or competition increases. This tool lets you model all three side-by-side, compare runway, identify when you need the next fundraise, and show investors you've thought through risk.
Model Your Scenarios
Base Case Assumptions
Scenario Multipliers
Projection Settings
How to Use Scenario Planning
Start with your base case: your most realistic projection based on current growth trends and no major changes. Then create a bull case by applying a 1.5-2x multiplier to growth—this is when everything works: marketing converts better, product adoption accelerates, or you capture a new customer segment. Finally, create a bear case at 0.3-0.5x base growth for a slower scenario where adoption lags or you face headwinds.
Compare the three scenarios to see the range of outcomes. The spread between bear and bull often reveals how much uncertainty exists in your model. If the bull case grows 10x faster than the bear, that's material risk. If they're similar, you have more confidence in your plan.
Scenario Planning Benchmarks and Ranges
Use these ranges as guides when setting your scenario multipliers:
Reading Your Scenario Results
MRR and ARR Growth
Look at the spread between your three scenarios at the end of your projection period. A wide spread (2-4x between bear and bull) is normal. A narrow spread suggests your model is insensitive to growth assumptions—you may be underestimating upside or downside risk.
Cash Remaining
The cash position in each scenario tells you your runway window. If your base case stays positive throughout but bear case goes negative, identify where in the timeline you'd need cost cuts or bridge financing. If all three go negative, you need the next fundraise sooner than expected.
Runway Interpretation
Runway in the base case is your planning horizon. Bull case runway is nearly infinite if growth converts to profitability. Bear case runway identifies your risk threshold—it's your "decision point" for cutting costs or raising capital.
Common Mistakes in Scenario Planning
Bull Case Multipliers Too Conservative
Many founders use 1.1-1.2x for bull case. Be more aggressive. If your base is 10% MoM growth, a reasonable bull is 15-20% MoM (1.5-2x). Bull case should feel ambitious but achievable with good execution.
Bear Case Assumes Linear Decline
Founders often model bear as a flat lower growth rate. In reality, bear cases show the point of cash depletion. Think of bear as your survival scenario: what's the minimum growth you need to extend runway long enough to recover?
Ignoring Burn Rate Dynamics
This calculator holds burn constant. In reality, if your bear case shows cash depletion, you'd cut costs. Model that: if cash hits 3 months, reduce burn by 20-30% and continue projecting. That's what investors want to see.
Not Tying Scenarios to Milestones
Scenarios are most valuable when tied to business milestones. Base case assumes you ship a feature in Q2 and add 50 enterprise customers. Bull case assumes you land 5 Fortune 500 customers. Bear case assumes slower sales cycles. Context matters.
Frequently Asked Questions
Go Deeper
These free tools give you the snapshot. Our software, templates, and books give you the full system to raise capital with confidence.